La economía de América Latina y el Caribe deberá cerrar el año 2016 con un retroceso de 0,3%, arrastrada por el mal desempeño del gigante sudamericano, Brasil, de acuerdo con las previsiones del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) divulgadas este martes.
Esta previsión para América Latina y el Caribe representa una revisión en fuerte baja de 1,1 punto porcentual con relación a las proyecciones del FMI en octubre pasado, cuando señalaba una recuperación de 0,8%. Para 2017, el FMI espera para la región un crecimiento de 1,6%.
Según los técnicos del FMI, la economía brasileña terminará el año 2016 con una marcada caída de 3,5%, después de haber exhibido en 2015 un retroceso de 3,8%. Recién en 2017, el gigante sudamericano podrá terminar estable, con crecimiento cero.
De esta forma, al actualizar el FMI los números de su Perspectiva Mundial con relación a los datos divulgados en octubre pasado, Brasil pasó a tener la más severa revisión a la baja entre las economías emergentes y las latinoamericanas, con una reducción de nada menos que 2,5 puntos porcentuales.
En octubre, el FMI había estimado que Brasil terminaría 2016 con baja de 1%, pero los fundamentos empeoraron y la entidad financiera introdujo su drástica revisión a la baja.
Al analizar el caso brasileño, el FMI estimó que la recesión brasileña, «causada por la incertidumbre política en medio de las secuelas» de las investigaciones sobre denuncias de corrupción en la estatal Petrobras, «está demostrando ser más profunda y prolongada de lo esperado».
El economista-jefe del FMI, Maurice Obstfeldt, dijo que sería positivo que el resultado de esta situación fuera «que se apreciara la necesidad de Brasil de mejorar la gobernanza». La corrupción y los problemas políticos, añadió Obstfeld, «han socavado la confianza como lo ha hecho el deterioro continuo de las perspectivas presupuestarias, lo que está minando la confianza y provocando mayor depreciación (del real), mayor inflación», añadió.
– «Tensiones económicas» –
El peso específico de Brasil en ese escenario contribuye a lastrar las expectativas de crecimiento en toda la región, señaló el FMI.
«La proyección actual apunta a que el PIB agregado de América Latina y el Caribe se contraerá también en 2016, aunque a una tasa más baja que en 2015, a pesar del crecimiento positivo en la mayoría de los países de la región. Esto refleja la recesión de Brasil y otros países en dificultades económicas», apuntó el FMI.
En el caso de México, el FMI formuló una previsión de crecimiento de 2,6% para este año, levemente por encima del 2,5% calculado para 2015, pero por debajo del 2,8% que había expresado en octubre (una revisión a la baja de 0,2 punto porcentual).
Para 2017, el FMI prevé un crecimiento mexicano de 2,9%, pero también por debajo del 3,1% que había pronosticado en octubre.
En su informe, la entidad pronostica una «mejora gradual» en las tasas de crecimiento de los países que «están experimentando tensiones económicas», y mencionó los casos de Brasil, Rusia y algunos estados de Medio Oriente.
Sin embargo, apuntó que «incluso esa recuperación parcial proyectada podría verse frustrada por nuevos shocks económicos o políticos».
Las economías latinoamericanas de perfil exportador de commodities también podrían sufrir el impacto de la desaceleración en China, país que cerró 2016 con crecimiento de 6,9%, el el menor nivel en un cuarto de siglo.
De acuerdo con el FMI, la «desaceleración y el reequilibrio gradual» de la economía China, segunda mayor economía del mundo, es una de las «transiciones críticas» en el escenario actual.
La súbita reducción de las importaciones y las exportaciones chinas pone más presión todavía sobre un mercado mundial de commodities ya deprimido, y con ello afecta directamente a los exportadores de numerosos países, muy en especial a Australia y Brasil.
– Gigante en aprietos –
Brasil, primera economía de América Latina, lucha desde hace cinco años contra una desaceleración económica que se convirtió en crisis en 2015.
El gigante sudamericano entró en recesión en el segundo trimestre, lo que redujo su capacidad de ahorro y lo condujo a bajar cinco veces en el año su meta presupuestaria, que pasó de un superávit de 1,2% del PIB a un déficit que podría llegar a 2%, es decir, de unos 31.000 millones de dólares.
La inflación brasileña en 2015 alcanzó 10,67%, su nivel más alto desde 2002, muy por encima de la meta del gobierno de 4,5%. En 2014, el país ya había terminado con una inflación de 6,41%.
El país está igualmente sacudido por un ‘tsunami’ de revelaciones sobre un megaescándalo de corrupción en torno a la compañía petrolera estatal Petrobras, que desató una profunda crisis política.
En ese escenario, la presidenta Dilma Rousseff enfrenta la amenaza de un proceso de destitución impulsado por la oposición.
En un reciente encuentro con periodistas, Rousseff dijo que el mayor error cometido por su gobierno fue no percibir la amplitud de la crisis.
Fuente: AFP
http://www.radiopublica.ec/noticias/actualidad/fmi-arrastrado-por-brasil-pib-de-america-latina-caera-03-en-2016
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