El desplome del precio del petróleo complace a los consumidores de Europa y Estados Unidos y da impulso a la lánguida recuperación de la economía, pero las cotizaciones del crudo se han convertido en una amenaza para la economía mundial, incluso si suben.
“Hoy estamos en una situación tal, que ya no puede haber más que malas noticias a corto plazo”, advirtió Jean-Michel Six, economista jefe de la agencia calificadora Standard & Poor’s para Europa, Oriente Medio y África. Esta visión pesimista contrasta con la satisfacción de los consumidores. A medida que la cotización del barril caía, los europeos o los estadounidenses ganaban poder adquisitivo, gracias a la baja de los precios de la gasolina y del combustible para la calefacción.
Este excedente les ha permitido tener un liquidez considerable para consumir otros bienes. Por ejemplo en Alemania, “con un crecimiento en torno al 1,5% en 2015, hay cerca de cuatro décimas de punto que se deben a los precios del petróleo. Esto es realmente un repunte del consumo”, destacó Ludovic Subran, economista jefe de Euler Hermes. Hasta unos meses atrás, la caída de los precios era una mala noticia para los productores y los países emergentes por la baja cotización de las materias primas provocada por la desaceleración de China, motor del crecimiento mundial en los últimos años. Pero a medida que esta situación se prolonga, los países consumidores también se han visto alcanzados por la tormenta, alertó recientemente el FMI. Según la institución financiera multilateral, esta evolución de los precios ofrece algunas ventajas como el abaratamiento de los costos de producción en muchos sectores y beneficios para los consumidores. Sin embargo, los efectos favorables se ven atenuados por las pérdidas en los países productores, que pasan por una “dura prueba”. Un golpe frontal para el comercio “Las caídas (de los precios del petróleo y de las materias primas) son un golpe frontal al comercio mundial”, dijo Six, en referencia a que las bajas cotizaciones hacen que los países emergentes ya no dispongan de recursos necesarios para mantener las importaciones. Y la caída de esas importaciones desestabiliza los rendimientos de las multinacionales, que tras la crisis de 2008 habían compensado las pérdidas en Europa y Estados Unidos refugiándose en los emergentes. Mientras más dure este ciclo, “más se va a marcar la diferencia entre ganadores y perdedores, ya sea en términos de país o de sector”, dijo Subran, en alusión a las enormes dificultades que enfrentan las empresas petroleras y de derivados en relación a industrias como la química o los transportes.
Este contenido ha sido publicado originalmente por Diario EL COMERCIO en la siguiente dirección:http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/petroleo-barril-polvora-economia-mundial.html. Si está pensando en hacer uso del mismo, por favor, cite la fuente y haga un enlace hacia la nota original de donde usted ha tomado este contenido. ElComercio.com
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